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Alternative Thinking
Can Machines Time Markets? The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction
May 6, 2024
Common wisdom has suggested that small, simple models are best suited for market timing applications, given finance’s “small data” constraint and naturally low predictability. However, we show that complex models better identify true nonlinear relationships and therefore produce better market timing strategy performance. We validate this "virtue of complexity" result in three practical market timing applications.
Quick Takes
Emerging Equities
April 10, 2023
Hear our quick take on emerging equities, where we’ll cover why – and why now – investors should consider re-visiting their allocations to this asset class.
Quick Takes
Trend Following in Alternative Markets
Q1 2023
What is alternative trend following? We summarize what a trend following approach is, how it can be applied to alternative markets, and why alternative trend following approaches have historically outperformed during difficult periods for traditional asset classes.
Quick Takes
Top Three Investment Ideas to Consider for 2023
Q1 2023
Watch a Quick Take on our Portfolio Solutions Group’s top three investment ideas for 2023.
Quick Takes
Quick Clips: The Stock/Bond Correlation
Q2 2022
For the past two decades, the stock/bond correlation (SBC) has been consistently negative, and investors have been able to rely on their bond investments for portfolio protection when equities sell off. However, macroeconomic changes – like heightened inflation risk – could push this key asset allocation input into positive territory.
Alternative Thinking
2022 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
Q1 2022
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include an analysis that attempts to reconcile ever-lower expected returns with ever-higher realized returns and suggests practical strategic steps to boost portfolio expected returns.